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| (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images via Business Insider) |
After every other candidate in the "moderate" lane of the primary dropped out and threw their support behind Biden, the only obstacle left was Bernie Sanders—who, as of my writing these words, announced he was suspending his campaign about 12 hours ago.* It would be short-sighted to overlook the significance of Sanders' achievements in this race. With the entire Democratic Party establishment, the economic elites, and much of the media class dead-set against him, he was still able to out-fundraise his opponents, win the popular vote in the first three consecutive states, dominate the youth vote and, ultimately, come in second place out of a field that once had over 20 candidates. But it wasn't enough. The consolidation that happened behind Biden, the media's continued hostility, and increased suburban turnout—perhaps because there was no Republican presidential primary worth voting in, or perhaps motivated by a fear that a socialist really would capture the Democratic nomination—proved too much for Sanders to overcome. There are certainly things he could and should have done differently. Phone calls and door-to-door canvassing, it's clear now, weren't enough to turn out the young voters he needed. Emphasizing the common ground between himself and Obama might have helped him perform better among more moderate Democrats. And the fact he's spent decades calling himself a socialist almost surely did more harm than good. But in the end, maybe the elite hostility to leftism of any sort and the voters' readiness to be cowed into voting for an "electable" centrist would have doomed him no matter what.
So now we're left with Biden, a candidate who's a laughable anachronism in the year 2020. Instead of taking the opportunity provided by the pandemic to call for a single-payer healthcare system—for which popular support has surged—he's busied himself arguing that Italy shows us it wouldn't make it any difference if we had one. Any notion that the left could meaningfully pressure Biden to govern as some kind of social democrat is nothing but a bad joke. With two-thirds of the American public and 21 of Biden's former Democratic primary opponents in favor of legalizing marijuana, Biden still can't even bring himself to support that. He's an inveterate left-puncher and has spent his whole career as one, and whatever rhetorical concessions he might make to the Bernie Sanders wing of the party will be forgotten as soon as he's elected—if that happens.
Whether he will be able to pull it off is anyone's guess. Against a normal president he'd be as good as dead, but Trump is no normal president—and, according to FiveThirtyEight, no incumbent since at least Harry Truman has gotten reelected with approval numbers like his. COVID-19 looks certain to be the dominant campaign issue, and how the pandemic plays out between now and November might well be the decisive factor. If it—and the economic mayhem it's unleashed— can be brought under control, that could boost Trump's image enough for him to get four more years. If not, Biden should have an easy path to victory. A cold comfort if ever there was one.
It's not clear what future there is for the left-wing movement Bernie Sanders represented, either. Regardless of who wins this election, he will be too old to run again and he has no obvious successor. It's completely unclear whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will have the experience, political acumen or even principles to take up the mantle from him in four or eight years, and it's even harder to imagine Rashida Tlaib mounting a successful presidential campaign. Aside from them, there are few high-profile left-wing politicians who would even be eligible. If Biden goes on to win the election, it could be a major, and lasting, victory for the Democratic Party establishment—particularly if he picks Kamala Harris or someone else with known presidential aspirations as his running mate. But then again, nothing is certain anymore. The idea that we could revive the old "normal" just by tossing out Donald Trump is just as much ridiculous nostalgia-mongering as his promise to Make America Great Again. For the foreseeable future, American politics will likely be as bizarre and unpredictable as they've been since 2016.
So what would a Joe Biden presidency give us? On the plus side, a reprieve from the worst excesses and savageries of the Trump Administration. But not much more than that. Four (or eight) years of feckless centrism, while Trump's base embraces paranoid fantasies about how the Communists are secretly pulling all the strings. The Republicans in Congress will go back their old game of blocking every bill or nomination that could be a feather in the Democratic president's cap. But even when he's able to act without Congress, Biden—like Obama—will not be bold or aggressive enough in trying to tackle any of the major crises we face. Inequality will keep getting worse. Any hope of keeping climate change in tow will slip further away. Our military will continue dropping bombs on people in faraway lands. Even after the current pandemic-induced crisis has abated, the economy probably won't be booming over the course of the next several years, either. After one or two miserable terms of this, it's not hard to imagine a right-wing populist more savvy—and more dangerous—than Trump coming to power. There are no shortage of candidates here, either—it could be freshman Missouri senator Josh Hawley, who's made a name for himself by ranting against the "cosmopolitan elite." Or perhaps Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, who blends Trumpian racism and nationalism with über-neoconservative foreign policy views. For that matter, it could end up being Fox News host Tucker Carlson—another media personality, like Trump, but one who's proven far more articulate and consistent in promoting far-right ideology.
On the other hand, another Trump term could be terrifying in its own right. God only knows what Big Don and his gang of crooks, geeks and racists might try if they're emboldened by another electoral victory. More state violence against immigrants, shredded environmental regulations and giveaways to the rich should all be treated as givens. Perhaps it would even go well beyond the horror show we've been subjected to so far. On the other han
d, maybe Trump's second term would be more moderate than his first, as happened with George W. Bush. Either way, the Democrats would likely win big in the 2022 midterms, and perhaps again in 2024—for whatever good that would do.
The whole picture is bleak, and there's not much cause for optimism right now. There will still be important fights for the next four years—in congressional, state and local elections, and outside electoral politics altogether—but the battle for the presidency is already lost, at least for me and every other leftist out there. Don't let anyone delude you otherwise—there is no institutional left that could push Biden to take up any meaningful portion of Bernie Sanders' agenda, and the Occupy movement showed that simply getting a lot of people to make noise does little to influence policy on these issues. No, regardless of what happens in November we are in for four more grim years, and perhaps many more than that. That reality is no excuse for political detachment, apathy, or nihilism—but it is a reality, and it's one worth confronting.
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*Obviously, it's taken some time for me to get this post out.
